Xinyangfeng (000902): New compound fertilizer with performance in line with expectations promotes profit growth

Xinyangfeng (000902): New compound fertilizer with performance in line with expectations promotes profit growth

Investment Highlights Event: The company releases 2019 semi-annual report.

In the first half of 2019, the company achieved operating income of 57.

75 ppm, an increase of 4 per year.

25% (the growth rate of revenue is expected to be mainly determined by the way in which the business is recognized by the trade method and the net method is changed from the merger method, resulting in an increase in trade revenue and a decrease of 3).

310,000 yuan, after excluding this effect, the actual income increased by 11.

39%); gross profit is 12.

32 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.

3%; net profit attributable to mother 6.

3.1 billion, an increase of 17 in ten years.

1% (15% increase in performance forecast every year?
30%, in line with expectations.
)

The close to the lower limit of profit growth was mainly due to the increase in the proportion of bad debts of other receivables from 10% to 30%, resulting in an asset impairment reserve of approximately 38.45 million yuan, affecting net profit after tax of approximately 32.3 million yuan. After excluding this effectActual net profit attributable to mothers increased by 23.

  05%); net operating cash flow 12.

8 billion, an annual increase of 322.

4%; ROE9.

73%, an increase of 0 every year.

59 points; advance payment 10.

200 million, an increase of 5 every year.

10,000 yuan.

  The market share of domestic leading enterprises in the phosphate and fertilizer industry continues to increase.

The company has a capacity of 800 tons / year of various high-concentration phosphate and compound fertilizers and a capacity of 320 tons of low-grade ore washing. The company produces 280 tons of sulfuric acid / year, 15 tons of synthetic ammonia, 15 tons of potassium sulfate, and 15 additives of nitric acid / year.

2016?
In 18 years, the company’s compound fertilizer market share was 4 respectively.

84%, 6.

12% vs. 7.

35%, ranking second in the industry for consecutive years.

Scale effects and industrial integration bring cost advantages and brand advantages.

The company’s industrial chain integration, the right to import potash fertilizer, and the unique location advantage bring about an excess cost advantage of about 180 yuan / ton.

  The income of conventional compound fertilizers is relatively stable.

The sales volume of conventional compound fertilizer in 2019H1 increased by 5 year-on-year.

13%, income increased by 11 in ten years.

84%, the gross profit margin was reduced relative to 0.

3 points.

Due to the dual impact of the high prices of upstream raw materials and the low prices of downstream agricultural products, the industry is fiercely competitive.

In order to cope with industry competition, the company has expanded its channel development efforts.

Benefiting from the company’s distributor channel resource advantage and strong market response speed, conventional compound fertilizers still achieved stable sales and profit growth in the fierce market competition.

  New compound fertilizers have become profit growth points, and product structure has continued to be optimized and upgraded.

In the first half of 2019, the ratio of new compound fertilizer to operating income increased to 18.
82%, gross profit as a percentage of gross profit rose to 22.

61%.
Achieved sales growth of 23.

01%, income increased by 28 in ten years.

32%, gross profit margin increased by 0 天津夜网 in ten years.

55 points to 25.

63%, higher than conventional compound fertilizer 5.

1pct.

The optimization of product structure benefits from the company’s continuous expansion of research and development investment in new fertilizers and the expansion of market capacity brought by high value-added marketing.

In 2018, the company and China Agricultural University established the Key Laboratory of Special Fertilizers for Crops of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas. Through continuous introduction of high-level scientific and technological talents, and strengthening of independent research and development, production, teaching, and research cooperation, stable fertilizers, special fertilizers, special fertilizers, water-soluble fertilizers,Eco-fertilizers and other products are new in one product.

The company’s technology promotion department intensified the construction of new-type fertilizer demonstration fields, implemented differentiated competition through technical services, and enhanced the recognition and stickiness of new-type fertilizer dealers and farmers.

The company’s highly known technical services are dedicated to enhancing the added value of products through professional technical services, creating brand value and enhancing user stickiness.

In February 19th, Liseno was established to promote the sale of high-end fertilizers and the “Companotek” with German Compo Expert, which began to be launched in the market in 19Q2 and will further contribute to sales in the second half of the year.

  Monoammonium phosphate sales are stable, with each increase in gross profit margin of 0.

98 points.

In 2019H1, due to the increase in self-consumption of compound fertilizer, the sales volume of phosphate fertilizer decreased by at least 3.

05%, income is reduced by 3 every year.

95%.

Due to cost reduction.

13%, the average value of the margin, each increase in gross profit margin 0.

98 points.

In 2019H1, the main raw materials of phosphate fertilizer, sulfur, synthetic ammonia, and phosphate ore prices dropped.

Taking sulfur as an example, the price range in 2018 was RMB 1050-1550 / t, and the price in the first half of 2019 dropped sharply to RMB 800-1200 / t.

Due to the stable demand for downstream monoammonium phosphate compound fertilizer, the industry supply continues to shrink due to the impact of environmental protection policies, and the price is relatively firm, so the gross profit margin has increased.

  Monoammonium phosphate is the focus of “triphosphorus” remediation, providing contraction in an attempt to drive price spreads wide, and high-quality capacity will continue to benefit.

Supply side: Monoammonium phosphate is the focus of the “three phosphorus” remediation, and the remediation intensity is great.

According to statistics, in 2018, the national monoammonium phosphate production capacity was 1,680 microns / year, which was replaced by 112 microns / year, and the capacity utilization rate reached 91.

4%, ten years +13.

8pct, capacity utilization has reached historical highs.

We expect that through the depth of environmental protection rectification, monoammonium phosphate production will be reduced by 15% in the next year, and the layout of continuous contraction is expected to continue.

Demand side: overall stability, but due to the impact of El Nino climate change, we expect the price of agricultural products to rise gradually, which is expected to drive demand for phosphate and compound fertilizers. As the industry leader, the company will take the lead to benefit.

  Cost: Yellow phosphorus is not a raw material for monoammonium phosphate and has no effect on the production cost of monoammonium phosphate.

Phosphate ore is a monoammonium phosphate production material, but its price has risen to the highest level, and it has little effect on the production cost of monoammonium phosphate.

Inventory: It is at a historically low level since 2015, and it is only in 50 periods of social inventory. Profit: The overall profit trend is improving, the operating rate has steadily increased, and high-quality leading companies that usually attach importance to environmental protection promote sustainable benefits.

We expect that with the better demand for agricultural products in the future, the prices of monoammonium phosphate and diamine products will cause prices to stabilize and rebound.

  Dealer channels have strong stickiness and significant marketing advantages.

The company has 5,000 first-tier dealers and 70,000 terminal retailers. At least some of the networks are the most densely distributed and have a high level of professional marketing channels. Over 50% of the dealers have cooperated for 10 years. Diversified varieties and multi-level channel modelsIt further strengthened the company’s channel stickiness; at the same time, because Xinyangfeng’s products have offset cost advantages and higher gross profit levels, they have the ability to give dealers more incentives and translate into more market share.

In the future, the company will still focus on boosting the sales of high-end fertilizers through the combination of pilot field demonstrations and technical services, and break through price-sensitive breakthroughs through the marketing model of “integrated large household services.”

  Investment suggestion: The company is a leading company in phosphate compound fertilizer, with high cost, product, brand and channel.

During the adjustment phase of the industry, we will continue to realize technological research and development, product and marketing innovation, seize the resources of high-quality dealers and farmers, accelerate the increase of the city’s share, and further expand the moat.
Maintain “Buy” rating.

  We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.
73, 0.

85, 0.

91 yuan / share, the corresponding PE is 15 respectively.

7X, 13.

5X, 12.

7x, maintain BUY rating.

  Risk warning events: the macro economy exceeded expectations, and product prices fell sharply.

Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074) Annual Report Comments: Decline in Gross Margin Declines and Financial Pressure Needs Relief

Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074) Annual Report Comments: Decline in Gross Margin Declines and Financial Pressure Needs Relief

Key points of investment: The company releases its 18-year annual report, reporting and 杭州夜网论坛 realizing operating income51.

2.7 billion, an annual increase of 5.

97%; realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

8 billion, down 30 a year.

75%; Realize non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies1.

9.1 billion, down 63 every year.

87%.

The company’s 18-year profit distribution plan is: a cash dividend of 1 for every 10 shares.

00 yuan (including tax).

The company released a quarterly report for 19 years and achieved operating income of 17.

5.2 billion, an annual increase of 65.

31%; realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

2.5 billion US dollars, an annual increase of 25.

22%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies1.

7.6 billion, an annual increase of 32.

77%.

The company 合肥夜网 adjusted the implementation progress of some of the raised capital investment projects, in which the “available annual output of 10,000 tons of high-nickel ternary subdivided materials and 5,000 tons of silicon-based anionic materials projects” was scheduled to be used in December 2019, the original date was December 2018Among them, the “available annual output of 210,000 new energy vehicle charging facilities and key parts and components projects” is scheduled to be used in December 2019, and the original date was December 2018.

Ping An’s point of view: The decline in gross profit margin has slowed down, and the installed capacity has ranked first: According to the data of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the company’s power battery installed capacity in 20183.

10Gwh, market share is 5.

45%; 19Q1 power battery installed capacity reached 0.

49Gwh, market share is 3.

98%, with a slight decrease in market share, ranking third in China in terms of installed capacity; in the end, BAIC New Energy and some passenger car enterprise customers reduced their purchases in the first quarter.

The company’s consolidated gross profit margin was 19Q1.

04%, stable rebound in 18Q4 (18Q1 / 2 / 3/4 comprehensive gross profit margin was 32 respectively.

87% / 34.

29% / 32.

10% / 13.

51%).

According to the company’s production volume, the company’s 18-year average value of power batteries is 3.

57 yuan / Ah, the average annual price in 2014 is down 34%; the rapid decline in power battery loss has caused the company’s gross profit rate to still be in a downward channel, and the decline rate of 19Q1 gross profit rate has slowed down.

The local purchase of new energy vehicles in the second half of 19 was completely withdrawn. The pressure on cost control of vehicle manufacturers was prominent, and pressure on power battery prices was still an industry trend; the company would benefit from the growth in production and sales of passenger car models employing lithium iron phosphate power battery systems.Bring market share back.

Receivables have grown rapidly, and financial pressure needs to be resolved: the company’s bills receivables and accounts receivable balance 63 at the end of 18 years.

30,000 yuan, reached 72 at the end of 19Q1.

6 trillion, receivables grow faster; the company’s 18-year report shows that the commercial acceptance bills in the balance of bills receivable in 18 years reached up to.

48 trillion accounted for more than half.

Short-term loan surplus of the company at the end of 19Q122.

30,000 yuan, compared with 8 in early 18th.

500 million US dollars increased by 162%; the company’s 19Q1 assets and liabilities reorganized 58.07%, the overall debt structure is short-term.

The net cash flow generated by the company’s quarterly operating activities was negative for the third consecutive quarter. Eventually, the payment cycle of the OEMs became worse after the national subsidy method period was extended. This situation will be improved under the state subsidy clearing and partial advance allocation system.
The operating cash flow was negative, the debt structure was short-term, and the increase in receivable income brought potential financial pressure to the company. The company’s 19Q1 single quarter index expenditure was zero.

61 trillion, financial expenses reached zero.

51 ppm, an increase of 290% per year in 18Q1.

The company is currently promoting the issuance of convertible bonds with a scale of 2 billion. After the latest financing is completed, the company’s debt structure will be significantly improved, and the pressure on the capital chain will be released.

Customer settlement quotation affects inventory scale: Due to differences in settlement timings of customers such as Ankai Bus, State Grid Jiangsu, etc., the company’s inventory structure at the end of 18 years included issued goods 6.

800 million, resulting in the company’s inventory book value at the end of 18 reached 22.

800 million; excluding the impact of this part of the company’s actual inventory of about 1.6 billion, there is no significant difference with the same period in 17 years.

As of the end of the 19Q1 period, the company’s inventory was 18.

500 million, an improvement from the previous quarter.

Improved control of comprehensive expense ratio: The company’s comprehensive expense ratio was 15 in 19Q1.

62%, which is the lowest level in the past 9 quarters (the comprehensive rate for 18Q1 / 2/23/4 is 22 respectively.

76% / 15.

94% / 18.

17% / 31.

25%), mainly realized by the control of sales expenses and research and development expenses.

The amount of “quality assurance and after-sales service costs” in the company’s 18-year sales expenses was 1.

3.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 37.

2%; the proportion of current income is 2.

6% per year for 17 years 4.

4% down 1.

8pct; expected product quality margin balance of the liability item is 3.

95 ppm, a reduction of 27 in 17 years.

3%.

The company’s 18-year R & D expenses3.

47 ppm, a 10-year increase3.

97%; the proportion of income is 6.

78%, a reduction of 0 per year.

13pct; of which R & D staff budget is reduced by 43 each year.

8%.

Investment suggestions: The company’s installed capacity will gradually maintain the top three in the country and the market will be highly advanced. Energy storage business development and the emergence of cost models will help the company to expand its lithium iron phosphate battery revenue scale. Effective control of the comprehensive expense ratio will help the company improve its net profit level.

According to the latest operating conditions, we adjusted the company’s profit forecast for 19/20/21 EPS to 0.

71/0.

81/0.

90 yuan (previous value 19/20 was 0.

79/0.

92 yuan), corresponding to the closing price of PE on April 30 were 20.

8/18.

3/16.3 times.

Taking into account the subsequent advancement of the company’s convertible bonds, the company’s debt structure and cash flow situation will be significantly improved, so the company maintains the “strongly recommended” rating.

Risk reminders: 1) The risk of account receivables recovery, the company’s receivables grow rapidly and commercial acceptance bills are added to the bills. If the capital return rate is not as fast as expected, it will significantly focus on the company’s financial costs;After the transition period of the national supplement, the local car purchase supplement was completely cancelled, and the OEMs will face cost pressure. If the price of power batteries drops more than expected, it will affect the company’s gross profit margin; 3) The risk of product structure and technical route.Improve the competitiveness of the battery field. If the subsequent high nickel ternary, OLO and other technical route application progress exceeds expectations, it may affect the company’s share and profitability level.

Hikvision (002415) coverage report for the first time: the stronger the security leader, the stronger the AI upgrade opens the blue ocean market

Hikvision (002415) coverage report for the first time: the stronger the security leader, the stronger the AI upgrade to open the blue ocean market

Hikvision’s video-centric IoT solution and big data 杭州夜生活网 service provider has been ranked No. 1 in the IHS global video surveillance market for eight consecutive years (2011-2018).

The company’s products have covered all major equipment of video surveillance systems, including front-end acquisition equipment, progressive storage and centralized control, display, management and storage equipment.

At the same time, the company is actively deploying innovative businesses such as smart home, robotics, automotive electronics, storage, and lithography.

19Q2 revenue growth is picking up, and optimistic outlook for the second half of the year.

Hikvision’s 19Q2 revenue growth rate was 21.

46%, reversing the breakdown of revenue growth since 18H2.

Hikvision’s guidelines began in March 1919, and the number of business opportunities gradually increased. Social investment began to stabilize in 19Q2. The company’s EBG growth rate was relatively fast, and PBG stabilized.

From the semi-annual report, 2019H1, domestic growth rate of 16.

46%, overseas growth rate of 10.

29%. Since the impact of trade sentiment in H2 in 2018 has increased, overseas growth has been slower than domestic.

The security leading factory has accumulated its advantages for the fragmented market.

Hikvision started from the traditional security factories and defined intelligent security as the “AI Cloud” architecture; Huawei entered from the strong ICT and defined security as “platform + AI + ecology”.

At the cutting edge, the two also have a lot in common. Haikang promotes edge intelligence and Huawei pushes high-end software-defined cameras; Haikang releases an AI open platform, and Huawei also has an AI open platform.

In our opinion, the difference is that Haikang is more focused on the unique fragmentation characteristics of security and explores the data analysis market for PBG and EBG; Huawei is more focused on platform intelligence, focusing on the government market, only cameras and platforms, not applications.

Hikvision is a leading domestic security company, leading the development of the industry during the AI upgrade, opening up the blue-sea market for the integration of 杭州桑拿网 material and information.

We expect that after the industry demand gradually picks up in the third quarter of 2019 and the AI upgrade continues to accelerate, Haikang is expected to continue to benefit from the competitive advantage above the leader.

What do we expect in 2019?
The company’s revenue growth rate will be 21 in 2021.

2% / 20.

2% / 20.

4%, net profit attributable to mothers was 131/159 / 19.4 billion, respectively, covering for the first time, given a “buy” rating.

Risk Warning: Uncertainty in domestic demand, uncertainty in trade relations, and the advancement of security AI is less than expected.

Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. (000807): Industry boom boosts Q3 profit expansion and issuance is approved. Hydro-aluminum integrated industry is advancing steadily

Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. (000807): Industry boom boosts Q3 profit expansion and issuance is approved. Hydro-aluminum integrated industry is advancing steadily

1.The event company released the third quarter report of 2019, which reported that it has actually achieved operating income of 179.

39 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

80%; Net profit attributable to parent company2.

92 million, an increase of 164 per year.

37%; profit achieved 0.

11 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 175%.

  2.Our Analysis and Judgment (1) The internal profit of the aluminum industry chain shifted to electrolytic aluminum, driving the company’s Q3 performance growth report, which was affected by the floods of major manufacturers and electrolytic aluminum safety accidents, which affected changes in the actual production capacity of electrolytic aluminum 187.Increasing the production capacity of aluminum is less than expected. The output and supply of electrolytic aluminum have improved. The industry’s supply and demand has shown a tight balance. The continuous destocking of electrolytic aluminum has supported the price of electrolytic aluminum.

The average price of Yangtze spot electrolytic aluminum in Q3 2019 reached 14,077 yuan / ton, an increase of 0 from the previous month.

19%.

In terms of cost, domestic bauxite factories have begun to adapt to imported bauxite overseas. The shortage of alumina raw materials has begun to ease marginally. At the same time, the release of alumina production capacity has continued to increase, resulting in an oversupply situation in the alumina industry.

In the third quarter of 2019, the average domestic alumina price fell by 11.

79% to 2543 yuan / ton.

The price of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the decline in cost has caused the aluminum industry chain’s profit to shift from the alumina to the electrolytic aluminum chain, and the profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry have begun to recover.

According to SMM calculations, the average profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry in Q3 2019 reached 579 yuan / ton, an increase of 647 yuan / ton from the previous month.

Benefiting from the redistribution of profits in the industrial chain, the prosperity of the electrolytic aluminum industry and the recovery of profitability, the company’s Q3 single-quarter performance increased by 19 from the previous quarter.

10%, an increase of 111 per year.

29% to 1.

3.1 billion yuan.

  (2) The additional issue was approved, and the company’s hydro-aluminum integrated industry has steadily advanced the company’s layout in hydro-electric aluminum, alumina, anode carbon and other expansion projects and development projects such as aluminum foil, battery foil, and aluminum welding.

At present, the company’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 210 can be supplemented, aluminum alloy and aluminum processing capacity of 100 mm, alumina production capacity of 140 tons, bauxite production capacity of 260 tons, and anode carbon production capacity of 65.

In the future, companies such as Zhaotong Phase II, Heqing Phase II, Wenshan Hydropower Aluminum Project, and Yunluan Yuanxin 60 Index / Annual Carbon Phase II Project will be gradually put into operation. The company’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity will exceed 300 microns / 杭州桑拿网 year.Aluminum processing capacity exceeds 100 calories / year and anode carbon capacity exceeds 80 calories / year.

  In addition, Wenshan bauxite reserves of about 1 reserves.

7 billion tons, providing part of the bauxite-alumina resource guarantee for the development of the company’s hydropower aluminum industry, and transforming the completion of the alumina construction project replaced by Wenshan 80, the production of self-produced alumina has been improved, and the self-sufficiency rate has been further improved; High-precision ultra-thin aluminum foil, 3.

5 The construction of projects such as probe battery foil and aviation aluminum alloy welding materials has also enhanced the added value and profitability of the product.

And the company’s non-public issuance of the approval of the Securities Regulatory Commission 佛山桑拿网 will help the company’s hydropower aluminum industry to further promote.

  3.

Investment suggestions The change in the supply-demand relationship of the aluminum industry chain has shifted the profits of the industry chain from the alumina end to the electrolytic aluminum end, and the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry is gradually being restored.

The company’s hydropower cost advantages are obvious. The hydropower and aluminum integrated industry is steadily advancing. Through the expansion of the entire industrial chain, cost reduction and volume increase are realized, and the logic of rising volume and price to drive performance release is more clear.

We expect the company’s EPS to be zero in 2019-2020.

16/0.

27 yuan, corresponding to PE of 28x / 17x in 2019-2020, maintaining the “recommended” level.

  4.Risk warnings 1) The price of aluminum has fallen sharply; 2) The downstream demand for aluminum has fallen short of expectations; 3) The new projects have been put into operation less than expected.

Jack Co. (603337): Not afraid of industry cycle fluctuations is estimated to have a safety margin

Jack Co. (603337): Not afraid of industry cycle fluctuations is estimated to have a safety margin

Investment Highlights: Objective: The company’s performance in the newspaper industry exceeded expectations.

Considering the downturn of the industry cycle, the EPS for 2019-21 is reduced to 0.

90 (-0.

44), 1.

05 (-0.

67), 1.

22 (-0.

87) yuan, cut target price to 22.

5 yuan, corresponding to 25 times PE in 2019, increase holdings.

  The company’s interim report performance exceeded expectations, channel construction and R & D expansion increased.

① The company’s 2019 interim report revenue is 杭州桑拿 20.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.

08%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

92 ppm, a decrease of 12 per year.

9%; deduct non-attributed net profit1.

62 ppm, a decrease of 22 per year.

2%.

Performance was lower than expected.

② Channel construction, R & D investment increased, and expense ratio increased.

The company is not afraid of the short-term cyclical fluctuations of the industry, focusing on medium and long-term development, and is still strengthening overseas channels, R & D expenditures, sales expenses, and R & D expenses have increased respectively.

3%, 8.

2%.

  The company’s market share is still increasing, and it is estimated that it has reached a higher safety margin.

①Industry growth rate, output fell 18% from April to May.

In the first half of the year, enterprises actively reduced production and staff, and more than a hundred companies in the first half of May gradually sewn machinery output of 249.

80,000, a year-on-year decrease of 13%; among them, the monthly output of the industry fell again by 18% from April to May.

② Affected by the Sino-U.S. Trade dispute, overseas exports of sewing machines are also trending.

From January to June, 1.93 million industrial sewing machines were gradually exported, exceeding the decline by 3.

8%; In May, the export growth rate will increase by 1 every year.

2%; and the monthly export volume of industrial sewing machines in June fell 22% year-on-year.

8%, with obvious fluctuations.

③ It is expected that the current cycle of the industry will continue until 2020. In the second half of the year, the company’s market share will continue to increase, even if the size of the industry changes slightly.

High-quality leading companies are estimated to have achieved a higher safety margin and are 杭州桑拿网 optimistic about the company’s medium- and long-term development.

  Catalyst: Further progress in epitaxial expansion.

  Core risks: the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices and the decline in industry demand growth.

Rongtai Health (603579): 4Q19 retail improvement trend is interrupted

Rongtai Health (603579): 4Q19 retail improvement trend is interrupted
The current situation of the company is due to the need for epidemic prevention and control, and many companies across the country have begun to replace it until February 10; the latest Taobao data retail monitoring update. Comment on the improvement of online retail in 4Q2019: 1) Taobao data monitoring, Tmall Rongtai’s official self-operated stores 1Q19 / 2Q19 / 3Q19 / 4Q19 retail sales decreased by -13% / -5% / + 10% / + 69%, showing a significantThe improvement trend is consistent with the trend of the company’s revenue growth.19Q1 / 2Q19 / 3Q19 company revenue for one year-15% / -7% / + 2%.2) The company’s online retail improvement did not come from price cuts.Thanks to the company’s new high-end “Yoga Chair” and “Gemini” massage chairs, the company’s average online retail price shows an upward trend. We expect the epidemic prevention and control to affect 1Q2020 performance: 1) The company’s offline brand sales account for 26% of revenue (2018), of which the first-tier market uses direct sales.During the epidemic prevention and control period, the offline flow of people decreased significantly, and we expect that the directly-operated stores will meet in the first quarter. However, considering that there are too many front-line sales staff in massage chair stores, and many shopping malls have taken rent reduction or exemption actions, it is expected that the store expansion will be reduced.2) In 2019, the company sold the assets of shared massage chairs to dealers to carry out the business of agency operations.Recently, due to the decrease in offline traffic, we expect that the 武汉夜生活网 revenue from shared massage chair services will gradually increase in the first quarter.The service revenue accounted for 16% of the company’s revenue (2018). The improvement trend in the fourth quarter of 1919 will be interrupted because of epidemic prevention and control.But consumer durables have the effect of expected consumption.We expect that after the epidemic is over, some demand for massage chairs will be consumed in the future. The estimation suggestion assumes that the epidemic only affects offline retail in 1Q2020, and we lower our EPS forecast for 2020 by 5% to 2.07 yuan, maintaining 2019 EPS forecast1.99 yuan, date 2121 EPS 2.36 yuan.Maintain neutral rating and target price of 31.74 yuan, corresponding to 16 times / 15 times 2019/2020 price-earnings ratio, there is 10% upside compared to the current consensus.The current priority is 14.5 times / 13.9 times 2019/2020 price-earnings ratio. Risk epidemic prevention and control leads to offline retail risks; market competition risks.

Sansteel Minguang (002110) First Quarterly Report of 2019: Falling steel prices affect company performance, asset injection and resumption projects are progressing steadily

Sansteel Minguang (002110) First Quarterly Report of 2019: Falling steel prices affect company performance, asset injection and resumption projects are progressing steadily

1.

Inc.’s operating income for the first quarter of 2019 was 83.

47 ppm, a reduction of 0 per year.

45%, net profit attributable to mother 9.

62 trillion, a reduction of 33 a year.

02%; Achieve budget benefits of 0.

59 yuan.

2.

Our Analysis and Judgment (1) Steel price decline, cost increase affects performance decline Steel price increase and overlapping cost increase affect company performance.

The average national rebar price in the first quarter of 2019 was 3912.

99 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2 from the same month last month.

88% and 9.

00%; the average price of imported iron ore in the first quarter increased significantly to 598.

84 yuan / ton, an increase of 31.

60% and 15.

01%; coke prices reached 1981 in the first quarter.

97 yuan / ton, down by 1 every year.

13%; Coke prices rose slightly in February and March 2019 to 1993.

19 yuan / ton and 1959.

86 yuan / ton, respectively, short-term growth of 3.

66% and 1.

36%.

In addition, the reporting company’s overhead cost reached zero.

82 mega inches increased by 1.

2 times.

Due to the decrease in bank expenses and the increase in interest income from bank deposits, the reported budgeted financial expenses have decreased by 2152 per year.

770,000 yuan, a reduction of 99.

57%.

(2) The recovery of real estate infrastructure boosts demand, and the relationship between steel supply and demand continues to improve. With the loosening of monetary policy margins and more active support of fiscal policy, real estate and infrastructure in the downstream of the steel industry have begun to pick up.

Investment in real estate development in the first quarter of 2019 increased by half a year11.

8%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.

4 units; new housing starts increased by 11.

9%, an increase of 5.
.

9 averages; domestic infrastructure 武汉夜网论坛 investment growth in the first quarter of 2019 reached 4.

4%, 0 higher than 2018Q1.

6 units.

Real estate and infrastructure rebounded stably, making the margin of steel demand improve, while the internal steel continued to be eliminated, until the steel inventory in March was 1200.
61 Initially, it was reduced by 18 per year.
19%, supporting the rise in steel prices and solidifying the profitability of steel companies.

(3) Intention to acquire group assets, bid for production capacity indicators and Zhangzhou resumed production projects to steadily advance and consolidate the foundation for the company’s future growthSpecific work related to light asset injection.

If the acquisition is successful, the company’s steel production capacity can be increased by 190 to approximately reach the maximum value of 1150, and the 杭州桑拿网 capacity growth can reach 20%.

In January 2019, the company successfully bid for 104 substitute pig iron capacity indicators and 100 indicators of crude steel capacity indicators of Shanxi Iron and Steel Group Xinjiang Company and has been converted into a circulation indicator trading contract, which is good for the company’s future expansion and expansion through the billion-dollar steel cooperative.The basics.

In 2018, the company comprehensively promoted the upgrading and reconstruction of Zhangzhou Minguang equipment and facilities. Zhangzhou Minguang successfully put into production. At the end of the year, it has entered the heat load test phase. After the product inspection is qualified, it can enter trial production and be generated.Steel capacity.

In addition, the sintered pellets, the old coke oven and the large-scale modification of the 5 # blast furnace have been actively promoted. After completion and commissioning, it is expected to further release capacity and increase company profits.

3.

Investment suggestion The company intends to acquire group assets, bid for capacity indicators, seek to expand production capacity, and change the strategic layout of Zhangzhou Minguang Reproduction Project, benefiting from the continuous improvement of the industry supply and demand relationship and the recovery of downstream demand such as real estate, infrastructure and replacement of steelContinued de-chemicalization will help the steel price to rise steadily, support the company’s performance, transform the development of endogenous epitaxy, expand the company’s production capacity, and its performance release will tend to stabilize.

The company merged the group’s asset injection, successfully bid for the 10,000-ton capacity index of Shanxi Iron and Steel and the steady progress of the Zhangzhou Minguang resumed production project, and its future development space will also be expanded to support the company’s gradual and progressive improvement in the future.

The company’s EPS for 2019-2020 is expected to be 2.

98/3.

21 yuan, corresponding to PE for 2019-2020 is 6.

0x / 5.

6x, maintain the “recommended” level.

4.

Risk warnings 1) Steel prices have fallen sharply; 2) Downstream demand such as real estate and infrastructure has fallen short of expectations; 3) Asset injection and recovery projects have fallen short of expectations;

High Energy Environment (603588): Three quarterly results increase 30% year-on-year

High Energy Environment (603588): Three quarterly results increase 30% year-on-year
Core point of view: In the accelerated construction of orders, net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters has further increased.06% of the companies released the third quarter report for 2019, and the first three quarters achieved operating income of 31.70,000 yuan (ten years +41.87%, the same below), to achieve net profit attributable to mother 3.1.4 billion (+30.06%), revenue and performance maintained rapid growth, mainly because the company accelerated the construction of orders in hand.The reported company’s engineering implementation projects resulted in cost growth exceeding revenue growth with a gross profit margin of 23.2% fell 7 last year.One, but benefited from the company’s period expense ratio decreased by 3.3pct, other income (government subsidies, etc.) and investment income of joint-stock companies such as Yuhetian totaled 67 million.9% (10 in the same period last year).8%). Operating business revenue accounted for 22.The net operating cash flow increased by 142% per year. The company’s operating income in the first three quarters of the year7.1.7 billion, accounting for 22% of operating income.6%.From the company’s first three quarters of supplementary orders, engineering contract orders18.3.4 billion, investment and operation orders5.9.2 billion, the proportion of operating orders compared to the same period last year to improve the length of data.The major companies reported increasing their collection of accounts receivables, with good repayments, and realized net cash flow from operations.500 million (+142.46%). Order 125 in hand.8 megabytes remained abundant, and green bond issuance projects were steadily advanced by business sector. Landfill orders were added in the first three quarters8.61 ppm, environmental restoration order 7.4.1 billion, hazardous waste disposal orders3.62 ppm, industrial solid waste order 3.3.4 billion.The company is currently ordering 125.82 trillion, with a budget of 87.43 trillion remain abundant.The company completed the issuance of 1.2 billion green bonds in August and terminated the three quarterly reports of currency funds in hand15.7.3 billion, accounting for 14% of total assets.4%, abundant currency funds in hand will guarantee 南宁桑拿 the smooth completion of orders. The repurchase demonstrates the company’s confidence in the development of equity incentives. Maintaining the “buy” rating does not consider convertible bonds to stocks. The company’s 2019-2021 EPS is expected to be 0.61, 0.79 and 1.00 yuan / share, according to the latest closing price of PE is 16 respectively.0, 12.4, 9.8 times.The soil pollution law began to be implemented in January this year, and the industry will usher in rapid growth in demand. The company will fully benefit as the industry’s leader in soil remediation.In addition, the company’s layout of waste incineration and hazardous waste disposal has entered the harvest period.It is expected that the company’s performance growth rate will exceed 25% in the next three years, giving a PE forecast of 20 times in 2019, corresponding to 12.20 yuan / share reasonable value, the company has ample orders on hand, and plans to buy back 0.The 5-1 billion US dollar equity incentive plan demonstrates the company’s development confidence and maintains a “buy” rating. Risks indicate that the completion of the M & A project is less than expected; the progress of the project is gradually expected; the financing progress is gradually expected.

BYD (002594): New energy supplements short-term pressure on outstanding downhill company performance

BYD (002594): New energy supplements short-term pressure on outstanding downhill company performance

Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 938.

22 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.

44%; net profit attributable to mother 15 was achieved.

74 ppm, a 10-year increase3.

09%.

Among them, the company’s Q3 single-quarter revenue was 316.

3.8 billion, down 9 every year.

17%; Q3 net profit attributable to mother in a single quarter 1.

20 trillion, down 88 a year.

58%.

The replenishment of new energy has declined significantly, and the company’s performance has been under short-term pressure.

At the end of June, the transition period for new energy supplements ended, new energy supplements further perfected the 杭州桑拿网 decline, and the new energy automobile industry was facing the dual pressure of reduced sales and gradual deterioration of profitability; transformation, the apparent decline of alternatives at the end of June also made the industry compensate for the decline.The rush installation effect before the slope is obvious, and the demand in the second half of the year is overdrawn to a certain extent.

From the perspective of sales volume, the domestic sales of new energy passenger cars in the first three quarters were 77.

740,000 vehicles, an increase of 29% over the same period; of which the single quarter sales of 20 in the third quarter.

260,000 vehicles, down 20 every year.

30%.

As for the company, the sales volume of new energy passenger cars in the first three quarters was 18.

800,000 units, an increase of 38% over the same period; of which the single quarter sales in the third quarter4.

520,000 vehicles, down 29 every year.

82%.

In the third quarter, supplementary exceptions and withdrawals led to increased sales and worsened profitability, and the company’s performance was temporarily under pressure.

Q3 Gross profit margin blood pressure, cost control is stable.

The company’s gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 16.

04%, down from the same period last year.

39 units; of which the gross profit margin in the third quarter was 13.
.

86%, down 1 from the second quarter.

48 averages, estimated to fall 3 in the same period last year.

35 units.

The main reason for the decline in the company’s gross profit margin is the gradual reduction in the amount of new energy subsidies.

In terms of expense ratio, the company’s expenses during the first three quarters of the year13.

11%, an estimated decrease of 0 in the same period last year.

96 units.

Complement the long-term performance of the downhill company under pressure and long-term optimism about the company’s choice of new energy vehicle leaders.

Although facing short-term pressure, the company has been deeply involved in the field of new energy vehicles for many years and has a leading edge in technology and cost.

The company has mastered the core battery, motor, electronic control and vehicle technology; it has a pure electric platform and third-generation dual-mode technology; the external supply of power batteries continues to advance at the same time; and cooperation with Toyota has been endorsed by international giants.

In the long run, the company, as a leading company in new energy vehicles, is the strongest in industry consolidation.

Earnings forecast and rating: After the transition period, new energy supplements have declined significantly, and the company and the industry are under pressure. Therefore, we revise down the company’s performance forecast.
It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 16 respectively.
1.1 billion, 20.

9.5 billion, 25.

3.8 billion, EPS is 0.

59 yuan, 0.

77 yuan, 0.

93 yuan, P / E ratios are 79.

84 times, 61.

41 times, 50.

69 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk warning: New model promotion is lower than expected, and new energy vehicle sales are lower than 北京夜生活网 expected.

Powerway Alloy (601137): Endogenous and Epitaxial Simultaneous Development of New Materials and Provider of Integrated Solutions in Precision Manufacturing

Powerway Alloy (601137): Endogenous and Epitaxial Simultaneous Development of New Materials and Provider of Integrated Solutions in Precision Manufacturing

Affected by the Sino-U.S. Trade war on international new energy business, the 夜来香体验网 company’s revenue growth in 2018 was on the expressway.

But at the same time the company’s new materials1.

8 The initial project was successfully put into production, and the next stage 5 investment project is progressing in an orderly manner. At the same time, it is planned to acquire Broadtech with 12 times PE and continue to expand high-end alloy business.

We are optimistic about the long-term trend of the company’s new materials business and maintain the “Highly Recommended-A” rating.

Annual revenue for 2018 is +5.

33%, net profit attributable to mother +11.

62%.

The company achieved operating income of 60 in 2018.

6.5 billion, +5 per year.

33%; net profit attributable to mothers3.

41 trillion, ten years +11.

62%; budget benefit 0.

55 yuan.

Of which 18Q4 operating income was 16.

1.5 billion, 深圳spa会所 compared with -1.

88%, ten years +4.

85%; operating cost 15.

3.9 billion, +0.

78%, +23 per year.

96%; net profit attributable to mother 0.

800 million, compared with -18.

36%, ten years +7.

93%.

In addition, the company intends to use the total share capital of 6.

2.7 billion shares are the base number, and a cash dividend of 0 for every 10 shares is distributed to all shareholders.

8 yuan new materials business endogenous: alloy business steadily heavy volume, 1.

8 The initial high value-added alloy project was successfully put into production.

The company has an annual output of 1.

8 announced that the high-strength and high-conductivity special alloy strip project will be expanded in mid-2018, and the company is expected to achieve 13 in 2019.

2Cobalt copper-based alloy production capacity.

In addition, the proposed new 5 aims at the smart factory project is progressing in an orderly manner.

In the next three years, the business of copper alloy strip, rod, and wire will achieve steady and rapid growth.

Develop collaboration and complementarity for downstream 5G, high-end manufacturing and other application products.

In the field of alloy plates and strips, the company has continuously increased the development of new products and independently developed a series of new materials of intelligent interconnection, high strength, high conductivity, and high transmission. It has excellent force, electrical and thermal properties, and can still work stably under high temperaturesIt can be applied to the construction of heat dissipation substrates in 5G base stations.

At the same time, thanks to the company’s close cooperation with Huawei and ZTE, the company’s high-end alloy products are committed to get new applications in the 5G era.

New material business extension: proposed price 9.

900 million acquisition of Broadtech, to achieve synergy in technology, research and development, brand channels and management.

In January of this year, the company released a plan for asset acquisition, which was planned to be 9 years old.Acquired 100% of Baldtech’s shares at a consideration of 9 million.

Broadtech and its subsidiary, German Berkenhoff GmbH (BK), are mainly engaged in the production of precision filament products such as precision cutting wires, precision electronic wires and welding wires. They are the world’s leader in high-end precision filaments, and their products are widely used in high-end manufacturing.Electronic communications and aerospace.

In terms of technology: BK, a wholly-owned subsidiary, its core technology is mainly reflected in the design of material components in the previous process and the filament manufacturing process in the subsequent process, which is in line with the “formulation” and “manufacturing process” of the current main business of listed companies”Two manufacturing cores.

In terms of research and development, BK has been in the industry for many years, and has multiple internal and external patents. The core technical staff has remained highly stable. Most of the core technical staff have more than 10 years of industry experience, and their professional directions are complete.

In terms of brand: In addition to BK’s bedra brand, which has a high reputation in the global high-tech precision filament market, listed companies can achieve parallel development in the Asia-Pacific and European and American markets through their marketing channels.

In terms of profitability: In 2018, Baldtech’s Q1-Q3 gross profit margin was 20.

57% of which precision cut wire 24.

21%, precision electronic wire 17.

28%, welding wire 11.

87%, the highest, the trader promised that Bode Hi-Tech’s net profit after deduction of non-return in 19-22 will not be less than 0.

78, 0.

9, 1.

06, 1.

3.1 billion.

The acquisition intention is to integrate centuries-old German manufacturing genes, joint development, domestic production, promote the upgrading of Bowie alloy alloy products, expand the category, and realize the evolution from a “cost-effective” enterprise to a “technical-effective” enterprise.Provider of integrated solutions in the field of new materials and precision manufacturing.

Extension of new materials business: Utilizing the industry’s deep cultivation for many years and long-term research and development strength, the expansion of production continues to focus on the areas of precision cutting and automotive manufacturing welding materials.

Broadtech’s production expansion includes 1) 2800 tons of high-end coated cutting wires are planned to be expanded and will be put into production in 2019 with an investment payback period of 5 years; 2) Bedra Vietnam’s new 2,400-ton brass cutting wire project will be put into operation in 2019 with an investment payback period of 5.

4 years; 3) 6,700 tons of new aluminum welding wire new project, put into production in 2020, investment recovery period of 8 years.

In the new project, it is planned to expand the profitability index (25% + gross profit margin) of the coated cutting wire project, which will enhance the overall profitability.

The new aluminum welding wire project can replace the existing mature technology of German BK company, realize the import substitution of high-end aluminum welding wire products, and create new profit growth points for listed companies.

New international energy: Reduce the means to reduce the impact of the Sino-US trade war, and actively develop emerging markets such as Vietnam.

On January 22, 2018, the United States opened up Act 201 and imposed a 30% tariff on photovoltaic cells and modules since February 7, 2018, causing the company’s sales in the North American market to shrink in the first half of the year.

The gross profit margin of photovoltaic module business is ten years -4.

08PCT, operating income is -0 per year.

28%.

However, the company actively develops emerging markets such as Vietnam and invests in the construction of 100MW photovoltaic generators in southern Vietnam. It is expected to be connected to the grid for power generation by the end of June 2019.

At the same time, the company continued to work on the key issue of battery conversion efficiency. In 18 years, it has made significant progress in the technology upgrade of PERC, and the average battery conversion efficiency of the production line reached 21.

8%, ensuring that the product ranks first in the global technology.

Maintain “Highly Recommended-A” investment rating.

19-21E, the company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers4.

3, 5.

4, 6.

0 billion, 19-21PE = 13.

7/11.

0/9.

8X, EPS = 0.

69/0.

85/0.

96 yuan.

Maintain Strongly Recommend-A Investment Rating. Risk warning: the risk of raw material price fluctuations; the risk of product price fluctuations; the risk that the actual market demand does not meet expectations

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